HPS³ - Florence So - Get TAN-ed when the Economy Goes South?

This event takes place in English.

The Hamburg Political Science Seminar Series (HPS³) features international speakers presenting cutting-edge research in empirical political science and political economy.

We welcome on Wednesday, April 30, 2025 - 17:15-18:45 CET in VMP9 B130

Florence So (Lund University)

Title: Get TAN-ed when the Economy Goes South? Economic Conditions, TAN Issues, and the Electoral Fortunes of Prime Ministers' Parties

Abstract: 

One of the most robust findings in political science is that voters punish the PM party for a bad economy. Under what conditions does the PM party evade voter punishment for a deteriorating national economy? I contend that when the economy deteriorates, the PM party improves its
electoral performance when it pays more attention than other parties do to TAN (traditional, authoritarian, nationalism) issues.Not only are these issues more salient during economic downturn, but unlike other parties, the PM party can frame principled, value-based issues in pragmatic terms - particularly if it promotes issues that they do not "own." Thus, emphasizing TAN issues more than other parties do distracts voters from the bad economic conditions and, by pointing fingers at societal problems, the party can repair its perceived governing competence and attract voters. I test my argument by examining parties' issue emphases using the MARPOR/CMP dataset and using four different national economic indicators – per capita GDP growth rate, year-to-year change in unemployment rates, and year-to-year change in inflation rates. The results reveal that the PM party improves its electoral performance by paying more attention to TAN issues than other ones – a benefit not extended to any other party. In addition, voter rewarding of emphases on TAN issues occurs only during economic downturn. Moreover, different types of economic downturn (e.g., greater unemployment versus higher inflation) affect which specific TAN issues improve the electoral prospects of the prime minister’s party. These results have large implications for polarization and liberal democracy. Since TAN issues have strong moral undertones and are inherently divisive, emphasizing them may have dire consequences for mass polarization or even solidifying support for anti-system parties in the long run.

The HPS³ seminars take place in person at the UHH. Please find the preliminary program on the HPS³ Website.

We invite everyone interested to attend the HPS Seminar Series and are looking forward to seeing you.